FUTURE3.AI
Strategy Report · Funding Carry · Rev. 2026
Strategy Report · Digital Assets

Market-Neutral Funding Carry

Earn the perpetual funding spread — fully hedged, unlevered, independent of price direction.

Long spot, short an equal-notional perpetual. The two legs offset on price, so the book carries no directional risk; the return is the structural rate spread the perpetual market pays.

Exposure
Neutral
Both legs offset on price
Leverage
None
No naked alt positions
Direction risk
≈ Zero
Falling price ≠ loss
Idle cash
Money market
Earns while undeployed

The net-value curve is indexed to 1.0 and post-cost (trading costs and funding assumptions included). The vertical axis shows net value as a multiple of the 1.0 start (1×, 2× …); we still don't quote Sharpe or annualised return. Data window from Dec 2023. See disclosures.

01 / What It Is

Two legs, one spread

Inside a Binance portfolio-margin account, buy spot and short an equal-notional perpetual. Price moves cancel between the legs; what's left is two structural sources of carry.

Long leg
Buy spot
Hold the underlying coin outright. Full upside and downside on price — to be cancelled by the hedge.
Short leg · equal notional
Short perp
Short the perpetual at matching size. Its price P&L offsets the spot leg, and it collects funding from longs.
Net return = funding income (shorts are paid by longs) + premium convergence (the perpetual's premium decaying back toward spot) − costs.

This is the same idea as a classic cash-and-carry / positive-basis trade. In digital assets the spread sits structurally richer than in traditional markets, because leveraged long demand is persistent. The book is never levered, never directional, and never holds naked altcoin exposure.

02 / Performance Character

Low and steady, by construction

The shape tells the story: a slow, steady climb with shallow drawdowns. The vertical axis shows net value as a multiple of the 1.0 start — what matters here is the character of the return, not a single headline number.

1.1×1.2×20232026
Net valueIndexed 1.0 · costs & funding in · axis = ×multiple of 1.0

Because there is no directional exposure, a falling coin price does not directly cause a loss. The book does carry a low positive correlation to bitcoin — but that comes from opportunity supply, not direction: when markets are active the spread is fatter and deployment is fuller, so return is higher; when markets are quiet the strategy contracts into cash rather than losing.

03 / The Convincing Test

Why 2026 matters most

Late 2025 into Q1 2026 was the leanest funding regime in three years — at the February 2026 trough, market-wide median funding turned negative. For a carry strategy, that is the stress test. Many peers lost money or unwound into it.

Through that window the book stayed positive and effectively drawdown-free. The reason is adaptive deployment: every trade must clear an explicit expected-spread margin over costs, so when the edge is thin the strategy sits in cash (idle balances earning exchange money-market interest) rather than forcing marginal trades. As the funding environment recovered from April 2026, deployment and return rose with it. The discipline is to do nothing when there is nothing worth doing.

04 / Risk Framework

Five layers

LayerMechanismEffect
1 · Structural hedgeSpot and perp held equal-notional, opposite signPrice moves create no directional P&L
2 · Entry disciplineExpected spread must exceed cost + margin; strictest of two cost estimatesNo marginal trades — cash preferred
3 · Daily risk sweepAuto-close any name whose holding spread turns negative that dayCuts tail events (e.g. a single-name delist squeeze)
4 · Sizing & capsEqual-weight split + liquidity threshold + high-volatility-list haircutSingle-name risk contained
5 · Cash floorUndeployed capital held in money-market productsBase yield even while flat
05 / Capacity & Fit

Where it belongs in a portfolio

Core capacity
Multi-million USDT, in liquid major names
Liquidity
Full realisation within roughly T+7
Lock-up
None
Pool structure
A liquid core pool with ample capacity, plus an enhancement pool (spread premia in newly-listed names) whose capacity is depth-limited and converges toward the core as size grows
Best fit
A low-volatility, low-correlation enhancer within a digital-asset allocation — not for capital seeking price beta

What we don't claim